Today, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the world is now experiencing a pandemic from the H1N1 influenza. This is the first official pandemic in 41 years.
In the video below from health video source ICyou, Dr. Joe Bresee, from the CDC, reviews the flu. He discusses the symptoms including fever, muscle aches, and cough. He also reviews what should be done if you have symptoms suggestive of the disease, or were exposed to someone with suspected infection.
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H1N1 Swine Flu Projections
To understand the impact that this flu virus will have worldwide we need to have more information. News coverage is focusing on the severity of the illness not the overall impact of the number of people who may become infected. As a novel virus we will likely see many cases. So let’s look at some projections based on varying infection rates. In this analysis hospitalization rates and mortality rates are fixed and based on low average predictions.
Assumptions:
Hospitalization Rate constant: 5%
Mortality Rate constant: 1%
WorldPopulation : 5,734,000,000
Scenario 1 – Typical Seasonal Flu profile
Infection: 1% -57,340,000
Hospitalization: 5% -2,867,000
Mortality: 1%- Mortality – 573,400
Scenario 2 – Moderately increased infection rate
Infection: 5% – 286,700,000
Hospitalization 5% – 14,335,000
Mortality: 1% – 2,867,000
Scenario 3 – (1968–1969) Hong Kong Flu infection rate
Infection: 15% – 860,100,000
Hospitalization 5% – 43,005,000
Mortality: 1% – 8,601,000
Scenario 4 – 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic Infection rate
Infection: 50% – 2,867,000,000
Hospitalization 5% – 143,350,000
Mortality: 1% – 28,670,000
So which scenario do you think will unfold?
Debra (math-girl)