To understand the impact that this flu virus will have worldwide we need to have more information. News coverage is focusing on the severity of the illness not the overall impact of the number of people who may become infected. As a novel virus we will likely see many cases. So let’s look at some projections based on varying infection rates. In this analysis hospitalization rates and mortality rates are fixed and based on low average predictions.

Assumptions:

Hospitalization Rate constant: 5%
Mortality Rate constant: 1%
WorldPopulation : 5,734,000,000

Scenario 1 – Typical Seasonal Flu profile

Infection: 1% -57,340,000
Hospitalization: 5% -2,867,000
Mortality: 1%- Mortality – 573,400

Scenario 2 – Moderately increased infection rate

Infection: 5% – 286,700,000
Hospitalization 5% – 14,335,000
Mortality: 1% – 2,867,000

Scenario 3 – (1968–1969) Hong Kong Flu infection rate

Infection: 15% – 860,100,000
Hospitalization 5% – 43,005,000
Mortality: 1% – 8,601,000

Scenario 4 – 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic Infection rate

Infection: 50% – 2,867,000,000
Hospitalization 5% – 143,350,000
Mortality: 1% – 28,670,000

So which scenario do you think will unfold?

Debra (math-girl)